There is no doubt in my mind that AVR is driving the spike in non partisans. One walk through WalMart and it's obvious that a healthy portion of the population can barely handle their daily lives, let alone political affiliation. That being said, I have always thought, if you want to know a people, see how they vote in a primary. This is completely anecdotal, but in my voting lifetime I have always been surprised at how well independent and libertarian candidates do in Elko county. Not “registered” Independent and Libertarian candidates, but Republican candidates that tend to lean independent or libertarian do well during the Republican primaries. That tells me that Elko county, while majority Republican has a strong independent streak, but when the chips fall during an actual election they vote for the party candidate. All of these registrations can't be assumed laziness though. Certainly the back and forth of both parties drives a portion of the population to not be affiliated with either. This has the potential to be a beneficial. I prefer a two party system that doesn't have a crop of “in the bag votes” every voter should be “corted” as a potential vote, not just the unknowns that flip flop every four years.
Actually, encouraging more independents to run is the best solution, IMO. Better than trying to "force open" party primaries, which is the current proposed solution. Make it easier to file and run as an independent candidate.
This is solid analysis. thank you. gives you some bedrock to build other hypotheses on. every study I have ever seen shows a high correlation between age and voter participation (younger do not participate, as you age you do). It could be as you age, you feel there is more at stake so you vote. Or, it could be you finally decide to do your "civic duty", which to me is a poor excuse to GOTV. Internally, what do we have to do as Republicans to spur people to register as Republicans, and then go vote? Agree very much there is a lot of distaste with both political parties today
I've heard the statistic, that older people vote. I believe it. I have voted, for president, in every election since I turned 18. Maybe I'm weird though. I actually kind of like politics. As for getting the youth to register and vote Republican. Its my opinion of course, but I think the Republican party does a real bad job of explaining the ills of a bloated government. Unfortunately I think that's because many of the long standing Republicans in Congress have very little desire to "unbloat" government. It's hard to convince without conviction.
Get out the vote is the most vital, by far. Registration is good--but more important is to keep encouraging people to CHECK their registration is up to date, especially if recently visiting the DMV. What I am most concerned with is discouraged voters at the polls trying to change their voter registration or not receiving the correct ballot in the mail.
Great analysis! I’m not active politically, and usually vote only in presidential elections, but this analysis seems intuitively right to me. I suspect one reason people begin voting as they age is because they start having children, which makes them take a good look at how public policy choices will affect their children’s lives. I’m a case in point: early on i was lackadaisical in voting, and tended to vote liberal. Then I had children, which forced a shift in perspective—around 1992 I became decidedly conservative, though I’m still registered Non-Partisan.
I worry that the decline in marriage and child bearing will create a shift to more left-radical voting patterns. I hope I’m wrong.
There is no doubt in my mind that AVR is driving the spike in non partisans. One walk through WalMart and it's obvious that a healthy portion of the population can barely handle their daily lives, let alone political affiliation. That being said, I have always thought, if you want to know a people, see how they vote in a primary. This is completely anecdotal, but in my voting lifetime I have always been surprised at how well independent and libertarian candidates do in Elko county. Not “registered” Independent and Libertarian candidates, but Republican candidates that tend to lean independent or libertarian do well during the Republican primaries. That tells me that Elko county, while majority Republican has a strong independent streak, but when the chips fall during an actual election they vote for the party candidate. All of these registrations can't be assumed laziness though. Certainly the back and forth of both parties drives a portion of the population to not be affiliated with either. This has the potential to be a beneficial. I prefer a two party system that doesn't have a crop of “in the bag votes” every voter should be “corted” as a potential vote, not just the unknowns that flip flop every four years.
Actually, encouraging more independents to run is the best solution, IMO. Better than trying to "force open" party primaries, which is the current proposed solution. Make it easier to file and run as an independent candidate.
This is solid analysis. thank you. gives you some bedrock to build other hypotheses on. every study I have ever seen shows a high correlation between age and voter participation (younger do not participate, as you age you do). It could be as you age, you feel there is more at stake so you vote. Or, it could be you finally decide to do your "civic duty", which to me is a poor excuse to GOTV. Internally, what do we have to do as Republicans to spur people to register as Republicans, and then go vote? Agree very much there is a lot of distaste with both political parties today
I've heard the statistic, that older people vote. I believe it. I have voted, for president, in every election since I turned 18. Maybe I'm weird though. I actually kind of like politics. As for getting the youth to register and vote Republican. Its my opinion of course, but I think the Republican party does a real bad job of explaining the ills of a bloated government. Unfortunately I think that's because many of the long standing Republicans in Congress have very little desire to "unbloat" government. It's hard to convince without conviction.
Get out the vote is the most vital, by far. Registration is good--but more important is to keep encouraging people to CHECK their registration is up to date, especially if recently visiting the DMV. What I am most concerned with is discouraged voters at the polls trying to change their voter registration or not receiving the correct ballot in the mail.
Great analysis! I’m not active politically, and usually vote only in presidential elections, but this analysis seems intuitively right to me. I suspect one reason people begin voting as they age is because they start having children, which makes them take a good look at how public policy choices will affect their children’s lives. I’m a case in point: early on i was lackadaisical in voting, and tended to vote liberal. Then I had children, which forced a shift in perspective—around 1992 I became decidedly conservative, though I’m still registered Non-Partisan.
I worry that the decline in marriage and child bearing will create a shift to more left-radical voting patterns. I hope I’m wrong.